Lecciones aprendidas en el simulador financiero de Investopedia (Parte II)

Pretendo estimular a los jóvenes a incrementar su IQ financiero y por lo tanto es importante compartir las lecciones aprendidas en el simulador financiero de Investopedia después de varios meses de prueba.


Estos son los tres escenarios que tenemos en la plataforma Investopedia, cada uno con su respectivo portafolio:

1. Warren Buffet $1 million dollars
2. Beginners $10,000
3. With $1,000

Reiteramos que es muy importante aprender a conformar los portafolios que tienen capitales grandes, en este caso, es recomendable comenzar a conformar los portafolios de USD$1 millón y de USD$10,000.

Una vez que se obtenga un buen crecimiento de la curva de aprendizaje durante la conformación de los portafolios grandes, se puede comenzar a conformar el portafolio de USD$1,000, que es el que consideramos más difícil de seleccionar, debido a los altos costos fijos de las operaciones bursátiles y al estrecho margen de maniobra que permite un capital bajo.

Hace poco observamos y participamos en uno de los eventos más importantes y fascinantes que tiene el sistema capitalista, el proceso de colocación de las acciones de las empresas en el mercado público, que se denomina IPO (Initial Public Offering) por sus siglas en inglés.

En esa ocasión, la empresa norteamericana Snap Inc ($SNAP $22.73 @2017.03.24-14:54) desarrolladora de cámaras y que está compuesta por la plataforma Snapchat y la división de hardware Spectacles, colocó 200 millones de acciones de la clase A sin derecho a voto a USD$17.00 cada acción. (Marzo 1 del 2017)

Al siguiente día, el precio base de las acciones de $SNAP comenzó a cotizarse a $24.00 por acción en el NYSE, alcanzando un pico máximo de USD$27.09 en Marzo 03 con un volumen muy alto de transacciones de 148.23M y un mínimo de USD$19,54 en Marzo 17.

Debido a que un IPO representa precisamente el inicio del ciclo de las empresas en los mercados públicos, los análisis fundamentales que se deben realizar de rigor antes de tomar la decisión de invertir en los activos de una empresa, no se pueden efectuar en esta etapa inicial, aunque evidentemente la información preliminar del producto, tal como la calidad, el “goodwill”, la cantidad de suscriptores y el sentimiento hacia el producto y la marca se puede determinar con cierto grado de certeza.

Los análisis fundamentales son la piedra angular en el mundo de las inversiones, y precisamente uno de los puntos esenciales cuando una empresa toma la decisión de volverse pública, es la buena preparación con que se debe contar para mantener todos sus estamentos financieros en forma pública y con acceso a todos los ciudadanos. Por ejemplo, en el caso de los Estados Unidos, la entidad que se encarga de regular a las empresas públicas es la SEC (U.S Securities and Exchange Commission).
Por lo tanto una buena práctica común entre los inversionistas, es realizar un análisis fundamental de los estamentos financieros de la empresa en la que tienen planeado invertir.

Generalmente es posible encontrar los estamentos financieros principales, es decir, el  Balance, el estado de P&G y el flujo de caja  en el formato denominado 10-K disponible en el portal SEC.
Reiteramos nuevamente que por su propia definición intrínseca, no es posible realizar un análisis fundamental de una empresa durante su IPO.

Pero efectivamente, los IPO representan una muy buena oportunidad para que los inversionistas experimentados puedan obtener unos jugosos dividendos.

En nuestro caso concreto, decidimos utilizar los tres portafolios disponibles en el simulador de Investopedia, para realizar un experimento de tres escenarios posibles.

Decidimos comprar las acciones de $SNAP en los tres portafolios, pero utilizar estrategias de inversión en cada uno muy diferentes.

Hasta la fecha, evidentemente el portafolio que utilizó la estrategia de inversión a corto plazo y decidió obtener un dividendo extraordinario en forma rápida durante el ascenso del precio de la acción y aprovechando la efervescencia y entusiasmo del mercado, tiene la ventaja hasta el momento.
Pero también tenemos un portafolio que decidió utilizar una estrategia de inversión a largo plazo y que plantea un posible escenario en donde se pueda realizar una adquisición de la naciente empresa por parte de uno de los grandes del mercado y de esta forma catapulte la acción al precio objetivo planteado.

También comenzamos a utilizar los instrumentos de opciones (calls/puts) que le permite al inversionista transar (comprar/calls o vender/puts) paquetes accionarios con vigencia futura, es decir estableciendo un plazo determinado en el contrato de estructuración de la opción.

El instrumento de las opciones es ampliamente utilizado, pero por el momento no tenemos unas conclusiones definitivas sobre su operación y resultados, por lo tanto en el próximo reporte plantearemos los resultados de nuestro estudio utilizando este mecanismo.


Continuará…

Windows 10 review: Bigger Windows of opportunities (Part I)

They tell you that is the better windows ever and it does.

Forty million lines of code later and thousands of engineering manpower hours later, they produced an operating system worth its weight, should I say worth its 75 GB of memory will absorb from your system.

But what really motivated me to write a review about the new Microsoft operating system is the beauty of the concept in their 3D Builder app.

3D Builder app is the factual proof that behind those beautiful blue windows, there is a new universe of opportunities.

3D Builder app, not only allows you to 3D design your product, but also allows you to get instant access to a supplier’s market place which eventually will be able to print out your design and delivery it to your place. 

Although the concept of digital market places is not new, the novelty here is the recently created marketplace is under Microsoft’s umbrella, which means a great momentum could be generated especially for young entrepreneurs. So the new windows are well connected and reflecting the new generations sentiment.

Most importantly, Windows 10 means developers can produce universal apps that work across desktop, phone, tablet and Xbox one. The core Windows apps such as the edge browser, mail and calendar are universal.

For another hand, is clever the way the new Windows 10 allows an easy integration with your mobile devices, including iphones and ipads, providing an easy going synchronization with all type of smartphones and tablets. It is possible also to use the office mobile in your smartphone and tablet doesn’t matter what type of operating system uses.

The bold step to include Xbox live in the new Windows 10 will pay huge dividends sooner than later, because looks like is the correct bridge to link the old fashion way of gaming with the new one.  Additionally Windows 10 powers the Xbox One now and will be coming to the Internet of Things devices.

Now, having Cortana in the new Windows 10 (the Artificial Intelligence assistant) is a tremendous breakthrough, which definitely could be consider as a very important milestone in the history of the software development, not only because the new great skills Cortana is able to perform, but due the beauty of the machine learning concept which will represent a very important step towards the AI evolution and the civilization progress.

Moreover, I consider Cortana would have a more spectacular role in the next Windows development, due the fascination that produces among young generations which are very familiar with the system through the famous game Halo.  Chances are the Cortana Halo followers are missing its spectacular GUI uses in the Xbox for a certainly more simplistic Cortana GUI in Windows 10.  Even so let`s make it clear, Cortana in Windows 10 is powerful and useful.

Last but not least, Windows 10 DNA looks in very good shape for the incoming era of the internet of Things, where the hardware division such as TV, smartphone, tablet, PC are part of the past and for the end user the future OS will work perfectly on all types of devices since the hardware division will be invisible for the end user.

Cortana, please keep getting smarter.

  

Snap. Crackle. POP: Lessons learned during the Snap Inc IPO

Founders, entrepreneurs, presidents, CEO’s and shareholders are constantly seeding crops in order to obtain a good harvest. Somehow in different scales and in different contexts (economically, intellectually, artistically, socially, spiritually) we are constantly doing the same.

Last week we witnessed one of the most fascinating acts of the capitalism system, which is the initial public offering of shares (IPO) of Snap Inc.

In the capitalism system, either the companies are growing or are shrinking, stagnation is a state difficult to find.

Like going from the childhood to the adulthood, sometimes the process of companies growing too fast is quite painful. Therefore, taking the decision to become a public company is a serious business.

The founders and leaders of Snap Inc took the decision to make their company public, hence they performed the first big test and launched their IPO successfully on March the 1^st, 2017.

They placed 200 million of shares of non-voting class A common stock at US$17.00 each share during the initial public offering on March 1^st.

Immediately after the IPO, the market started to react accordingly making predictions about the different potential scenarios and charts for the $SNAP stock debut the next day on the NYSE.

On March the Second, the Snap stock debuted on the NYSE at US $24 per share, although in our particular case, we were able to access at $25.05 / 11:45 am.

So here our first lesson learned, for such a big event like an IPO, it is highly advisable to be fully redundant and have available two teams, each one with two internet providers and two different computers in order to split your stock investment position in two. Chances are, one of your teams will be able eventually to obtain a better deal. Additionally you are mitigating the risk using this strategy.

Then you should be fully aware of the short term players, the cherry pickers which will try to get a super-fast profit in the short term, once the stock reach the peak. So it is very important to watch carefully the market reaction during this stage.

Although the market was pretty much even in regards of the bulls/bears distribution rate during the post-IPO stage, Snap was surrounded by seasoned underwriters that manage the situation in the proper way.  Hence, the Snap stock delivered very well and pass another hard test during the Friday AH (After Hours) after the closing bell, finishing at $27.30 per share for the delight of the long runners.

Likewise, we decided to hold on the Snap stock for the weekend, moreover we are setting up a long term strategy in regards of Snap stock, since we have been experiencing some paternalistic feelings towards the stock due the refreshing young Snap leadership team that we consider is very important and healthy for the technological ecosystem and the economy, especially for the tech companies that will follow the path Snap is marking.

We really hope and wish, the new Lighthouse (a.k.a Snap Inc) is signaling a vibrant and colorful horizon in 2017.

So, let´s Snap, Crackle, POP and Cheers!

 

ColombuX: Stock Market Index for small companies

Colombux is based on the BVC and AmeX stock exchange (bourse) registered companies.

Colombux pretend to create a dynamic market for small companies and also democratize the stock market to a broader public.

The very first companies which will be subscribed to Colombux are our own cluster of companies: LumbradaX, FractalCoding, RoverUno, Tesla Reloaded and Solumgraf.

Colombux will encourage the small companies that want to growth in a steady way and has the primary objective of exporting services and goods to the developed markets to become public companies and participate in the stock market actively.

As the common rule in the majority of the stock market indices, Colombux index will be value with the following formula:

Index level = ∑ (P.Q) / divisor

Where P is the price of each stock in the index and Q is the number of shares publicly available for each stock.

The divisor will be part of our intellectual property asset and will be adjusted in accordance with the macroeconomic rules.

Please stay tuned for the Colombux latest developments and the launch date.